Polymarket put a 75% chance on Jensen Huang announcing his resignation or removal from Nvidia by December 31, 2026, after the Wall Street Journal reported on November 11 that the board is preparing to oust him. Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993 and has run it for 33 years. A live pull of the market on November 12 showed the Yes side at 77.5%, so the price was still moving.
The odds that Jensen Huang announces resignation or removal by year-end jumped to 75% in one sharp spike.
The contract asks a narrow question. It resolves Yes only on an official announcement of resignation, removal or another departure by the deadline. Media reports, "considering" statements and unaccepted resignation offers do not count.
How the Jensen Huang exit odds spiked
The chart sat low and flat for weeks, then jumped almost vertically once the WSJ story landed on November 11, easing slightly at the latest print. The Yes price ran from roughly 16% to about 90% within three hours of the report, and bitcoin.com recorded a brief 90.5% peak.
That was the second spike in a week. Yahoo Finance reported odds spiking late on November 9, when the affair investigation broke, then falling back to 18% by 6 AM on November 10. The WSJ report lifted the market from that 16-18% base.
Readings also differ because they were taken hours apart. Our snapshot shows 75%, up 59 points from the 16% base. crypto.news printed 82% for the same December 31 contract on November 12, and 89% for an end-of-2027 deadline, which is a different question.
Where the money sits on Huang's exit
Volume splits across a ladder of deadlines: $5.1M on December 31, $4.2M on November 12 and $1.1M on November 13, out of $19.5M in total. A live pull of the December 31 market on November 12 showed $5.20M total volume, consistent with the ladder. crypto.news counted $4.67M on that contract and $16.63M across all deadlines, a narrower and earlier snapshot.
The largest positions lean Yes. Bertapotamous holds $210K on Yes, paule334 grew a Yes stake from $9.6K to $46K, and Tobby-Simon carries $101K on No. The bet feed shows anoin123 putting $94K on Yes at 62¢ and ImJustKen adding $31K at 92¢ plus $36K at 62¢, each marked five to six hours old. Polymarket odds are market-implied probabilities set by traders, and wallet positions are snapshots.
Analysts question the Polymarket odds on Huang
Kalshi prices about 80% that Huang leaves before December 1. Its market pays only when he actually leaves the role, while Polymarket pays on an announcement, so the two figures measure different things. D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria said removing Huang immediately would be challenging because Nvidia has no succession plan, Reuters reported.
The ouster itself remains unconfirmed. Nvidia's board said on November 8 that an independent investigation was underway and voiced confidence in Jensen and his leadership. Reuters could not verify the WSJ report and said Nvidia did not respond.
Two dates anchor what comes next. Reuters reported the board could meet as soon as Wednesday, November 11, and Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on November 17. Until an announcement lands, the market keeps repricing. Drops Bot can track Polymarket wallets and markets like these in Telegram.