Bitcoin is seven weeks from its first back-to-back losing years. The coin is down 17.7% in 2026 after a 6.3% fall in 2025, per DropsTab's chart for 12 November. Across the 13 years on that chart, Bitcoin has never closed two calendar years in the red in a row, and every red year was followed by a gain.
Every red Bitcoin year was followed by a gain, but 2025 (-6.3%) and 2026 (-17.7% so far) could break the pattern.
The rebound list has three entries. Bitcoin lost 58% in 2014 and gained 35% in 2015. It lost 74% in 2018 and returned 92% in 2019. It lost 64% in 2022 and rebounded 155% in 2023. The strongest year on the chart remains 2017 at +1,369%.
The line Bitcoin must clear by 31 December
A red 2026 means a year-end close below the 1 January opening near $87,497, the break-even Yahoo Finance set out. From about $71,856 on 12 November, that asks for a rally of roughly 21.8% inside seven weeks. The year has swung on the way down: a low near $69,300 in August, an intraday high of $82,283 on 3 September, then the November slide.
The yearly number itself moves with the snapshot. 247wallst had Bitcoin at $75,034, down 14.3%, on 9 November. Analyst Charlie Bilello counted a 13% loss on 7 November. DropsTab's chart prints 17.7% three days later.
Why Bitcoin is falling in 2026
The slide has crypto-specific causes. The 29 October Binance hack drained about $6.3 billion, the largest crypto theft on record. The ETF bid then flipped: US spot funds lost $299.9 million on 11 November, a fifth straight day of outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT carrying about 90% of the total and roughly $2.004 billion gone since 30 October.
Macro added pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% on 5 October, and Bilello counts Bitcoin and gold as the two worst major assets of 2026, the first such year on record.
Bitcoin's three rebounds are a thin sample
The streak rests on three observations, and the 2025 label sits loosely. Bitcoin set its all-time high of $126,195.41 on 6 October 2025, per DropsTab price history, then slid about 31% to a year-end close near $87,497. CoinDesk wrote on 12 November that Bitcoin had slipped back below its 50-week average of $75,153, erasing the September breakout Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn had read as bullish.
Thorn's own historical frame gave that signal four hits in five bear markets, with 2021-22 the exception. Polymarket bettors give Bitcoin a 32% chance of outperforming gold in 2026, market-implied odds as of 12 November. Holders with size are staying: Strategy still holds 850,364 BTC with no sales, per Marex analysts, and JPMorgan raised its Strategy stake 36% in the third quarter.
Two levels frame the final seven weeks, per market maker Wintermute: $68,000 below, and a reclaim of $80,000 to change the view. The year closes on 31 December against the $87,497 line.