Of the 12 VanEck capitulation indicators being tracked, 8 are currently triggering, and over the past three months, all 12 have entered the capitulation zone.
The drawdown from October’s 2025 high has now lasted for 10 months. Over the four completed cycles since 2011, bear phases have averaged 11–13 months in length—meaning we should expect a transition to accumulation between September and November. However, backtests sober us up: after similar capitulation signals, BTC hasn’t shown significant excess returns over a 3- to 6-month horizon, outperforming the market only after a full year—and that’s based on a small sample size.
- Holders with coins held for more than a year sold off 356,000 BTC over 30 days (-2.9%); their share has fallen below 60% for the first time in a long time
- U.S. spot ETFs attracted ~$663 million over the month—a reversal after outflows of $2.4 billion the previous month
- Funding rates for perpetual swaps have turned positive (+4.7% annualized), and puts are at record highs relative to calls
VanEck notes that some of the movement of “old” coins may be explained not by selling, but by wallet transfers following the Coldcard hack—out of security concerns rather than panic.
