Grayscale’s Head of Research, Zach Pandl, noted that since the start of the war with Iran in late February, U.S. stocks have risen by 9%, BTC has fallen by 1%, and gold has dropped by 20%. The reason for BTC and gold’s underperformance is the expectation of a Fed rate hike: during this period, expectations for the one-year forward rate have risen by approximately 60 basis points, and about half of Fed officials are now anticipating a rate hike in 2026. The ECB has already raised interest rates.
Grayscale disagrees with this scenario: the company’s base forecast assumes the Fed will hold off on raising rates. If this happens, Bitcoin could catch up with stocks. Pandl also pointed out that BTC serves a dual role in portfolios—acting as a scarce digital asset for long-term storage and as an exposure to the growth of the crypto industry—and at current levels, it looks attractive.
Since the start of the war with Iran, U.S. stocks have risen by 9%, BTC has lost 1%, and gold has fallen by 20%