- April CPI came in higher than expected—3.8% y/y versus the consensus of 3.7%. Real wages turned negative for the first time in three years. The yield on 10-year Treasuries jumped by 28 bps over the week to 4.58%, the highest level since September 2025. Markets have completely priced out any rate cuts for 2026 and now assign a 44% probability of a rate hike by December—up from 22.5% just a week ago.
- New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was confirmed by a narrow margin of 54-45—the closest result in modern history. His first meeting under his leadership will be held on June 16-17, with updated economic projections. Historically, he has leaned toward a hawkish stance.
- The Trump-Xi summit ended inconclusively: general platitudes, an order for Boeing aircraft that disappointed the market, a warning about Taiwan, and confirmation that China is staying neutral on Iran.
- BTC rose above $82,000 on news of the CLARITY Act but quickly reversed course, closing the week at $78,000 (-5.7%). Over the weekend, it slipped further to $77,000, triggering $657 million in liquidations—mostly long positions. ETH lost 10.2%, and ETH/BTC fell to 0.0275. Spot BTC ETFs recorded outflows of $1 billion—the first weekly outflow in six consecutive weeks. ETH ETFs saw another $255 million in outflows.
- BTC failed five times this month to break through its 200-day moving average (~$82,200). Key support lies between $76,000 and $78,000. A break below $75,000 would open up the $70,000–$72,000 zone.
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