- The first quarter was a "No Trade Zone" - the Maelstrom fund bought and sold almost nothing, except for gradually increasing its position in HYPE. Two factors created a stalemate: the deflationary blow from AI agents on the labor market and the war with Iran.
- Scenario 1 - return to normal: the war ends, the status quo is restored. BTC may bounce back to $80-90k, but AI deflation continues to destroy the labor market and bank balances. A signal from the Fed to print money is needed for new growth.
- Scenario 2 - Iran starts collecting money from ships: Iran cements control over the Strait of Hormuz and collects $2 million from a ship in yuan. Countries sell dollar assets, buy gold, convert to yuan. BTC initially falls with the market, grows only when money printing starts.
- Scenario 2.5 - American blockade: The US blocks Iranian ports. It will either turn into double collection (both Iran and the US) or end up as a Swiss cheese full of exceptions. The outcome for the dollar is the same.
- Scenario 3 - The US strikes: The US destroys Iran's ability to block the strait. Iran at the last moment destroys the entire Gulf's oil infrastructure. Global commodity shock, central banks print money. BTC first falls, then rises - but the threat of World War III reduces the upside.
- Key indicator: the spread between May and October WTI oil futures. Also worth watching the MOVE index: above 130 - money printing will begin.
- Portfolio: Hayes holds bitcoin and increases HYPE. Expects HIP-4 to take a significant market share from Polymarket and Kalshi. Buys nothing else.
Continue reading this article on source: cryptohayes.substack.com